NFL Picks of the Week (2016-2017)

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NFL Picks of the Week (2016-2017)

Postby MattyB » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:53 am

An old/new feature here at MESN: Matty's picks of the weeks.

As always we use actual point spreads and trends here (bet percentanges come from various internet sources, but most reliably SportsbookSpy.com).

If you have a gambling problem call 211, gambling is illegal at Bushwoods, etc.

AND NOW ON TO THE PICKS!!!

Pick 1: New York Jets +1.5

The Jets have won 5 straight openers. Cincy will try to attack the Jets with the run, using a combo of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, as the Jets have a banged up interior D to start the year, which might be missing stable veteran David Harris, who is a game time decision after suffering a shoulder injury on preseason week 3. The Bengals secondary, however, is where the issue lies in this one. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at the healm for the Jets after a lengthy contract dispute, but his return coincides with a Bengals team that is missing much of their solid secondary from last season. Online reports have over 74% of bets on the Bengals, and it's never easy siding with the public on week one.

Pick #2: Detroit Lions +3

The Colts, led by a #1 pick who still hasn't made the leap into elite status yet, host a team with a #1 pick who also hasn't made the leap into elite status yet.

The Lions come into this one as one of the healthiest teams in the league, with a scarce injury report. The Colts, however, are missing three of their top five defensive backs today and are starting a rookie at free safety. No Calvin Johnson for the Lions due to retirement, but he's been banged up by injuries now for more than two years, so this isn't new hat for the Lions. Stafford will be running a no-huddle offense against a team with a banged up defense. Line opened at Colts -4, and with 63% of the bets coming on the Colts side, you would expect that line went up. However, it has slid down, as the Colts are now 3 point favorite. I'll take the Lions +3.

Pick #3: Patriots +7

No Brady. No Gronk. No problem? Not quite, but....

The Cardinals are a tough bunch that got tougher in the offseason, adding former Patriot Chandler Jones to help the pass-rush. Patriots fans would all agree, however, that Jones does not help their run defense in any way. The Pats defense is pretty healthy, and forced turnovers in the preseason that helped set-up easy scores. Carson Palmer is a good veteran QB, but he has a history and ability to have a massive turnover game if forced into it. The keys for the Pats include shutting down Cards running back David Johnson, who is a great safety valve in the short passing game, give Jimmy Garoppolo a manageable game plan that includes quick, short passes, utilize their running backs and look for newcomer Martellus Bennett. I think many are expecting an Arizona blow-out, but I think this is a prime spot to get a Bill Belichick led team with 7 points to boot. Over 70% of the bets are currently on Arizona -7.

Pick #4: Pittsburgh/Washington Under 49.5

Pittsburgh's offense is great at full strength, but will be missing Le'Veon Bell due to suspension to start the year (again) and Martavis Bryant, who was the John Taylor to Antonio Brown's Jerry Rice (out for the year due to suspension). Brown will be covered by Josh Norman, a big free agent acquisition from Carolina, so Ben Roethlisberger will have to look at Sammie Coates, Eli Rogers. Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Ladarius Green (UPDATE: GREEN OUT/INJURED FOR 6 WEEKS DUE TO ANKLE) as other options in the passing game (Heath Miller retired in the off-season). On the other side, Kirk Cousins resurrected his career last season, and came into camp as the starter for the first time in a long time. Running back Matt Jones has returned after injury, and I expect the 'Skins will be looking to keep the ball out of Big Ben's hands as much as possible. This is an extremely high total for an opening week game, so I'll take the under here.
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Re: NFL Picks of the Week (2016-2017)

Postby MattyB » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:35 am

Not a ton if time for write-ups today, buttttt....

Carolina/Atlanta under 49

This line opened at over 50, but with the betting public on the over at 65%, this line drops. Looking for a more of a ground and pound between these two squads today, at least enough to keep it under 49.

Detroit -3
They can't run, but Chicago might be worse than Cleveland right now.

Baltimore -3
Public loves the Raiders, but Baltimore just keeps winning.
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Re: NFL Picks of the Week (2016-2017)

Postby MattyB » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:14 am

Brutal Sunday last week, with 3 games being decided late ATS wise. Sometimes the dog eats all the cookie, and sometimes he only gets a lick.

He got the whole package last week. Apologies to Chips Ahoy.

This Week:

Jets +9.5
This line would have been Pittsburgh -6 last week, as the community overreacts to Pittsburgh's blowout of Kansas City last week, while the Jets shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. Seems like one of those games where neither team will be able top run and neither secondary will be able to contain the otherside. I'll take the points.


LA Rams + 2.5
Bills are 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off of consecutive wins. They also have the perpetuity for a letdown after beating the Patriots last week.


Atlanta +4
Line opened at -6 until news that Paxton Lynch would be under center for the Broncos. Or in the shotgun. Whatever. Atlanta is on fire right now, and if they avoid the turnover bug might find some wiggle room against the Broncos defense, who can't be perfect every week, can they?
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Re: NFL Picks of the Week (2016-2017)

Postby MattyB » Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:11 am

Chicago -1

Brian Hoyer has the Bears playing decently, as they almost stole one from the Colts last week. I expect some points in this one, but Blake Bortles still isn't trustable (is that a word? and if it isn't, WHY ISN'T IT??")

Dallas +4

This line originally opened with Green Bay as 7 point favorite, but has gone down to a 4 point favorite with the majority of public bets coming in on the Pack. Cowboys have something special with Prescott, and their defense isn't half bad, either. The Packers are like that old minivan in your yard: it misfires on occasion and won't take a sticker, but it always starts and gets the gang to school. This is the second straight year the Pack offense has been less than perfect...something just seems off.
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