Maine men BB have 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

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Maine men BB have 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby bcbc55 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:19 pm

Very interesting and unique that TeamRankings.com gives Maine a 59% chance of losing to UMBC and Realtimerpi.com gives them a 59% chance to beat UMBC. Which one is going to be right?

Going into Sundays 1:00pm tipoff time the UMaine men's basketball team has to beat UMBC at home at the Cross Insurance Center in Bangor in a game the Blackbears have to have if they have any hope to go 8-8 and possibly finish 4th with a home QF tournament game.

Maine's SOS (Strength of Schedule) is way better than UMBC's as Maine is second in the AE Conference in SOS at 181 to UMBC's 304. Maybe that is why Realtimerspi.com is picking Maine to win at 59%.

However, TeamRankings.com has Maine ranked 321 in RPI and and has UMBC's RPI at 217 so maybe that is why they are picking and giving UMBC the 59% chance of winning.

Whatever the reasons each ranking system is at the 59% in picking a win or a loss for UMaine and UMBC.

Who will be right and who will be wrong????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Wonder how and if Vegas is predicting the game??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Other factors to consider in predicting the final results. UMBC won at home over Maine 61-52 in the first conference game of the year in which UMaine lead by 12 at the half, but could not hang on. UMBC is 11-10 overall and Maine is 5-19. UMBC is fourth in the conference at 6-3 and they beat Vermont at Vermont by 13 points 74-61 and that is Vermont's only conference loss. Vermont beat Maine 86-63 at Vermont and 73-49 at Bangor. Maine is 3-6 in the conference. But, remember the SOS Rankings. But, also remember that big win by UMBC at Vermont 74-61.

Comparative Conference Results:
.............UMBC....Maine
Maine.....H61-52...UMBC 52-61A
Albany....H65-64....66-62A
UMass-L..A63-74....78-59A
Hartford.A64-66.....76-77H
Bingham..H68-49.....66-78A
Vermont.A74-61......49-73H
UNH......A59-51......62-53H
SB.........H57-49......61-64H
Hartford.H61-70
Vermont...............63-86A

A=Away game..H=Home games

UMBC is 2-2 on the road and 4-1 at home 6-3
Maine is 2-3 on the road and 1-3 at home 3-6


Too me this is a toss of the coin. But Maine is at home, have been playing well of late, should have beaten Hartford and Stonybrook at home, have a much higher SOS and are home. Outscored UMass-Lowell on the road and UNH at home 78-28 in the paint and only shot 3-18 and 4-15 for threes 21.1% and still won both games. Both teams are about the same size wise.

I'm going with Maine 68-63.

What is your prediction?
Last edited by bcbc55 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Maine men BB has 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby Blackbear28 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:56 pm

Hey Bobbo, I’m not a mathematician but I’d say there’s a 100% chance Maine either wins or loses against UMBC.
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Re: Maine men BB has 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby bcbc55 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:09 pm

Blackbear28 wrote:Hey Bobbo, I’m not a mathematician but I’d say there’s a 100% chance Maine either wins or loses against UMBC.


"Blackbear28": You are absolutely 100% correct. No ties in basketball. Let's hope for a win.
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Re: Maine men BB has 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby Justabasketballfan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:47 am

Of course comparative scores and year-long statistics are poor indicators of the outcome of a specific game.
It's fun with numbers, but has very little relevance to a specific game.

It's all about match-ups, how a team matches up against its opponent on a given night.

Here's the key point in trying to compare Maine to UMBC: Ball-handling.
Maine had 22 turnovers in the first meeting, UMBC had just 10. Lots of extra shots for the team on the positive side of that statistic. UMBC took 50 shots from the field (42 for Maine) and held an edge in FTs taken (18 to 9).

Maine's No. 1 priority this time is to take better care of the ball. Need to cut turnovers down to 13 or 14 for the game.
If the turnover battle goes unchanged, so too will the outcome.
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Re: Maine men BB has 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby bcbc55 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:43 pm

Justabasketballfan wrote:Of course comparative scores and year-long statistics are poor indicators of the outcome of a specific game.
It's fun with numbers, but has very little relevance to a specific game.

It's all about match-ups, how a team matches up against its opponent on a given night.

Here's the key point in trying to compare Maine to UMBC: Ball-handling.
Maine had 22 turnovers in the first meeting, UMBC had just 10. Lots of extra shots for the team on the positive side of that statistic. UMBC took 50 shots from the field (42 for Maine) and held an edge in FTs taken (18 to 9).

Maine's No. 1 priority this time is to take better care of the ball. Need to cut turnovers down to 13 or 14 for the game.
If the turnover battle goes unchanged, so too will the outcome.


"Justabasketballfan": Agreeeeeeeee, 110% about numbers not a good indicator as the old saying goes, "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure". But numbers are fun to play with, especially when you are an old senior basketball citizen with plenty of time on my hands.

Also, agreeeeeeeeeee 120% that matchups and turnovers are real important to the outcome of games.

Interesting, though that Maine is 1-3 at home and 2-3 on the road and UMBC is 2-2 on the road and 4-1 at home and that UMBC beat Vermont at Vermont 74-61 and Maine lost to Vermont at home 73-49 and at Vermont Wednesday 86-63.

Just can't get away from those figures that can tell some truth.
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Re: Maine men BB have 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby sewey76 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:56 pm

For what it's worth Lamb did not play for Vermont in their home loss to UMBC
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Re: Maine men BB have 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby bcbc55 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:59 pm

sewey76 wrote:For what it's worth Lamb did not play for Vermont in their home loss to UMBC


"sewey78": Thanks for that info, that is certainly a worthy factor.
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Re: Maine men BB have 59% chance to win or lose vs UMBC!

Postby thebam » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:05 am

Big game today. It would be nice to see more than 100 people show up. No Celtics. No Bruins. No Patriots. No Red Sox. Hell, can't even watch grass grow this time of year. So, what excuses do people have for not going and supporting this program today? My excuse is that I live 1911 miles away. I did, however, pay my $50 for ESPN + and will once again be watching. Perfect day for a big crowd. The coaches and players are busting their a$$ day in and day out and are showing improvement. It's time for that effort to be acknowledged in the form of fans in the seats.
A win today vaults them into 6th place with a real discussion about the 4th spot going forward. This is an important game. No other way to break it down.
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