AE champ predictions

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AE champ predictions

Postby mikegormanfan » Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:03 pm

Maine 66
Hartford 54

Blanca Milan. Game high 21
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Re: AE champ predictions

Postby maine612 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:12 pm

Pretty darned close!

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Re: AE champ predictions

Postby CFJunior » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:44 pm

What an amazing atmosphere at the CIC. I knew Coach Vachon could cosch, but she totally outcoached the Hartford coach. Great halftime adjustments against the Hartford zone.
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Re: AE champ predictions

Postby mikegormanfan » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:48 pm

Thanks Maine 612.

I almost got it.

Don't be surprised if this team pulls off an upset in the first round. If they can grab a 14 or 13 seed it's possible.
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Re: AE champ predictions

Postby CFJunior » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:29 am

mikegormanfan wrote:Thanks Maine 612.

I almost got it.

Don't be surprised if this team pulls off an upset in the first round. If they can grab a 14 or 13 seed it's possible.


I am a big fan of this team and Coach Vachon. They have had an amazing season. But without a solid and true post presence and a back up point guard, this team doesn't have the horses to beat any #3 or #4 seed. I certainly hope I am wrong.

That being said Maine's starting five can compete with any mid-major program. Milan and Sutton could play for any team they will play against in the NCAA tourney. They are both legit D1 basketball players. That likely won't be enough to best a Tennessee, Florida State, UCLA or Ohio State who will likely all be #3 seeds.
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Re: AE champ predictions

Postby turkeyman » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:20 am

A 14 seed may be the best Maine can get. Using the automatic qualifiers plus Charlie Creme's projections of the 32 teams to get at-large bids, only 10 teams in the field have lower RPIs than Maine, which is ranked 70. If the bottom four get 16s and the next four get 15s, there are now just two lower than Maine and those two plus Maine plus George Washington (77 in RPI) would get 14s. Maine's only hope for a 13 would be if some of the teams just above Maine have really bad losses (worse than Toledo, Bingo, Stony Brook).

The four teams just above GW in RPI are Belmont, Florida Gulf Coast, American and Western Kentucky. All are automatic qualifiers and at least FGCU and Western come from conferences that are usually stronger than AE. If only RPI counted, those four would be the 13s. Then, the next four are Mercer, Quinnipiac, Northern Colorado and Elon. Again, if only RPI counted, those teams would be the 12s. Now we're getting into conferences that are in the same stratum as AE, and if any of those had really bad losses (say to teams below 200 or even below 150), some of the lower RPI teams such as Maine could move up.

It seems possible, though barely, that Maine could get a 13 seed. Maine had strong though losing games against Miami (51 in RPI) and Ohio State (6 in RPI) and was tied at the half with Miami. That was the game in which Dor went down with a leg injury. I saw the Miami game, which was a terrific effort, but not the Ohio State, which I heard was some of Maine's best play of the year but not an entire game's worth of best play.

Even with a 13 seed, Maine would still be playing the first round on the home court of its opponent. You have to get a 12 or better before it becomes neutral court for both teams. I don't see that happening. But we don't know until we know.

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