Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

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Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:17 pm

An earlier post I saw got me to thinking about how Maine's D3 schools have fared recently when it comes to NCAA appearances.... Here's a look...

Women’s basketball over past 25 years

Tournament Appearances – most recent

USM 20: 2013
*Bowdoin 16: 2016
*UNE 7: 2016
Bates 6: 2006
Husson 4: 2016
Maine Maritime 3: 2007
St Joe’s 2: 2016
Colby 2: 2011
UMF 2: 2007
Thomas Zero

Men’s Basketball over past 25 years

Tournament Appearances – most recent

Husson 5: 2016
Bowdoin 4: 2014
Colby 3: 1997
St Joe’s 2: 2009
Bates 1:2015
UMF 1: 2010
UNE 1:2009
MMA Zero
USM Zero
Thomas Zero

On the women's side I think that several have received at-large bids in the past, but I don't recall that being the case on the men's side, but I could be mistaken. **edit---Bates & Bowdoin both have received at-large bids on the Men's side

*Currently Nationally Ranked or was at one point this season
Last edited by Countryboy on Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:47 pm

As we move into February and into the final stretch of conf play, only a handful of teams appear to be in a good position to secure the top seeds in their respective Conf Tournaments.

It's pretty much the usual suspects, as on the Women's side both Husson (1st place, 12-0 in Conf play, 3 games up), and St Joe's (1st place, 11-0 in Conf play, 1 game up) are well positioned to earn the Conf Tourney 1 seeds, while on the Men's side only Husson (1st place, 10-2 in Conf play, 3 games up) appear to be on their way to earning the top seed.

Still in the running on the women's side is UNE (11-2 Conf play), who seem to be peaking at just the right time having now moved into 2nd place in the CCC, 2 games back.

Bowdoin (15-3 4-2) falls to #23 in the latest National Rankings (53 SOS), so a strong finish could possibly put them into consideration for an at-large bid if they don't win the NESCAC Conf AQ (which currently has the top 2 teams in the country, both undefeated at 20-0)

The Bates men are having a real nice season (15-6, 4-3), but most likely they would have to win the NESCAC Tourney AQ to earn an NCAA bid, which would be a very tall order indeed.

As for the rest, well it ultimately will come down to improving their seedings to host, with hopes of some upsets in order to win their respective Conf AQ's and a date with Cinderella come March.

I think that there's a distinct possibility that 4 WBB teams from Maine could make it into the field, the same as last year (which I think was the most ever), with Bowdoin once again receiving one of those rare coveted at-large bids because of their win/loss record ( which I project out at 20-5 ), and their strong SOS, the byproduct of playing in the tough NESCAC.

Good luck everyone!
Last edited by Countryboy on Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:54 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:04 pm

On an interesting side note, the Bowdoin women (17-3 6-2) seem to find themselves in a position in which every game has suddenly become a playoff game, because in my opinion they can't afford to drop any games outside of their upcoming Conf tilt at Middlebury (14-6 4-3) and making it to at least the 2nd round of the NESCAC Tourney in order to secure an at-large bid. 20 wins is their magic number in my opinion.

They seem to have a fairly strong resume in that their SOS has consistently hovered around the 50 mark and 2 of their 3 losses have come against the Nation's top 2 teams, fellow NESCAC members Amherst (lost at home by 21) & Tufts (lost by 3 on the road), with the 3rd loss coming in OT at 13-8 Claremont Mudd-Scripps earlier in the season.

Next week keep an eye on an important make-up game for the Polar Bears as they travel to Husson (16-1) for a key OOC in-state battle that could go a long way towards at-large considerations for both teams if it comes down to that.

Husson's only loss this season was a 2OT thriller at 17-3 Guilford, but the relatively weak NAC Conf RPI makes receiving an at-large bid unlikely. The only way I see that possibility playing out is if Husson ends up losing the NAC title game and in turn knocks off #23 Bowdoin next week, strengthening their resume and finishing the season at 25-2. Anything else probably means Husson will have to win the Conf AQ to punch their ticket to the Dance.

It looks like Husson v Bowdoin is shaping up as a monster game for both teams! Should be a fun couple of weeks no doubt!!!
Last edited by Countryboy on Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:20 am

The Bowdoin women improve to 17-3 6-2 with a solid win at Middlebury, while Husson probably ends any shot at an at-large possibility after a loss to Johnson St, dropping them to 17-2 13-1, 2 games up in the NAC.

St Joe's moves to 18-3 12-0, 1/2 game up in the GNAC, while UNE knocks off previously undefeated in CCC play, Roger Williams, and now is only 1 game back.

On the men's side, Husson improves to 12-2 in the NAC, 3 games up, while Bates drops to 15-8 4-5, after a loss to Trinity.

Tuesday's Husson v Bowdoin women's game isn't quite as big now, as it really would only affect Bowdoin's at-large possibilities.

#2 Amherst knocked off #1 Tufts 36-35, and thus both teams sent a clear message that defense is what it will take to win the title.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:24 am ... ings-first

Husson, Bowdoin, St Joe's make the cut in first released women's regional rankings.. ... ings-first

Only Bates makes the cut in first released Men's Regional rankings...
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:35 am

As we move closer to the conclusion of the regular season and into to the start of Post Season Conf Tourney action, both the Husson Men and St Joe’s Women have already secured the top seeds, and thus that all important home court advantage, although St Joe's is the top seed in GNAC North, 1/2 game ahead of GNAC south leader Emmanuel for the overall 1 seed, with St Joe's holding the tiebreaker having defeated Emmanuel earlier.

The Bowdoin women will go in as a 3 seed in the NESCAC with an impressive overall record of 20-3, where they will face Conn College (16-8, 4-6) in the NESCAC 1st round, a team they defeated this past weekend by 21 points respectively. Bowdoin’s 20 wins should be enough to secure an NCAA at-large bid even if they were to lose to Conn College.

The Husson women hold a slim 1 game lead in the NAC with 2 games remaining against teams from the bottom half of the Conf., while UNE is tied for the Conf lead and currently holds the tiebreaker with 1 game remaining against 2-21 Nichols. Win out and you’re in as the 1 seed.

As for everybody else, their hopes to dance with Cinderella lie in their ability to improve their seeding’s over these few remaining games and hope to spring some upsets!!

Look for Bowdoin to leap frog Husson in the newest Regional Rankings when they are released, and for St Joe’s and Husson to settle nicely into the top 10, with a possibility that UNE climbs into the Rankings based on their 19-5 record and current 13 game winning streak.

There's a high probability that there could soon be four 20+ win WBB teams in Maine, as Bowdoin (20-3), UNE (19-5), St Joe's (20-4), and Husson (18-4) are well on their way towards achieving that milestone, which as far as I know is only the second time that has occurred (2006-07 being the other), in which all 4 of those squads Danced. Bravo ladies!!!

On a side note at this point I think Bowdoin is the only sure thing for an at-large bid (if needed), while the others are all on the bubble, so it's imperative they win their Conf AQ just to be safe if they want to insure they get into the Dance.

The Bubble watch is about to kick into full gear if that doesn't occur. Time to take care of business everybody!
Last edited by Countryboy on Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Pirates79 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:51 am

Thanks CB. I appreciate your posts.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:49 pm

Women's Northeast Region NCAA Tourney at-large candidates as of 2/20/17

Northeast Region Ranking- W/L record - SOS - bad losses - good wins

1.Amherst 25-0 12-sos Tufts (24-1)
2.Tufts 24-1 15-sos Bowdoin (21-3)
3.Bowdoin 21-3 20-sos
4.Babson 20-5 14-sos
5.E. Conn St. 18-7 31-sos USM (5-20) UMD 2x (21-4)
6.UMASS-Dartmouth 21-4 90-sos Babson (20-5)
7.Husson 20-4 169-sos Johnson St (12-13)
8. Keene St. 18-7 104-sos UMB (9-16) Middlebury (17-8) ECSU (18-7) UMD (21-4)
9.Middlebury 17-8 26-sos RPI (10-15)
10. Springfield 18-7 47-sos
11.St Joe’s (ME) 21-4 261-sos Rivier (10-14)
12. Framingham St. 20-4 293-sos Worc St. (12-13)

On the outside looking in…
Conn. College 16-9 13-sos Emerson (12-13)
WPI 21-4 154-sos Coast Guard (11-14)
UNE 20-5 231-sos
MIT 20-5 185-sos Babson (20-5)

Keene St. & Framingham St. enter the top 12 as WPI & Conn College depart. Some pretty poor SOS numbers in the top 12, so those teams better win their Conf AQ's if they want to put on their dancing shoes.

NASCAC members Amherst, Tufts, & Bowdoin are locks to receive NCAA bids. As a point of reference, last year 3 at-large bids were granted to the Northeast Region. If that holds true this year then the NASCAC will once again claim 2 of those 3 at-large bids. With 3 teams currently among the top 8 in the Northeast region, the LEC runner up is my odds on favorite to claim that 3rd at-large bid if it comes down to that. And may the odds be ever in your favor ! :)

On the men's side of the rankings Bates fell outside the top 12, so the only way any Maine Men's teams will get to the dance is by winning the Conf AQ's. Let the games begin!
Last edited by Countryboy on Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:56 pm, edited 10 times in total.
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:11 pm

Head2Head games between the top 12 Northeast Region Rankings vying for 1 or possibly 2 NCAA Tourney at-large berths (Amherst, Tufts, & Bowdoin are locks)

Husson defeated St Joe's @home

Keene St won @Middlebury

Keene St split with both UMASS-Dartmouth & ECSU

Middlebury won @Springfield

UMASS-Dartmouth won @Babson

ECSU twice defeated UMASS-Dartmouth

Springfield defeated Framingham St @home

Based on Head2Head play Keene St. & ECSU both came away with 3 victories over Northeast Region Ranking candidates up to this point. Of those 3 victories for Keene St., all of them came on the road. Advantage Keene St.

The way it's lining up in the LEC Tourney, Keene St. and UMASS-Dartmouth should meet up in the semis. The loser of the LEC Championship game will most likely receive that 3rd at-large bid based on their W/L record, stronger SOS, and Head2head results.

To sum up, I would be very surprised if any team from Maine (other than Bowdoin) has a realistic shot for at-large consideration, so they need to snag those 1 seeds and ride that home court advantage all the way to the Conf AQ bids !
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Re: Maine D3 MBB & WBB Bracketology

Postby Countryboy » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:42 am

Here's a look at the NCAA At-large bids received since 2007 for conferences with Maine WBB Schools is them....

NESCAC 24 (i.e. Bowdoin, Colby, Bates)

LEC 7 (i.e. USM)

CCC 2 (i.e. UNE)

GNAC 2 (i.e. St Joe's)

NAC 1 (i.e. Thomas, Husson, MMA, UMF)

Over the past 3 years 7 of the 9 At-large bids have gone to the NESCAC, with all of those at-large bids having a minimum of 20 wins. A minimum of 22 wins if outside of the NESCAC.

If Husson wins out and loses in the Conf Championship game they would finish with 22 wins. Same applies for UNE, while St Joe's would be at 23 wins. Unfortunately their poor SOS's and lack of signature wins may still not be enough to get them over the hump. Usually a win against LEC USM would be a good win, but not this year, as USM has fallen on hard times and currently stands at 5-20.

Husson can make their case that they lost in 2OT's at Old Dominion league leader Guilford(NC) (21-3), but the beatdown they received at home to Bowdoin may be the nail in the coffin. UNE and St Joe's also beat USM, but neither has even a semblance of a signature W on their resume's.
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